Macro crypto currency market outlook

Bitcoin has been in corrective mode still stalling out ahead of the record high from March. But overall, the outlook remains constructive while the price holds above the May low at $56,500, with the market confined to a bullish consolidation within a major range. Ultimately, only back below $56,500 would delay the outlook and open the door for an even deeper setback towards $40,000. Until then, look for the market to be well supported for an eventual push back towards and through the record high.

June was a challenging month for crypto assets. Both bitcoin and ether were down a nice amount on the month, to the tune of about 10%. At the same time, the setbacks need to be taken in context. After all, when looking at year-to-date performance, we get an entirely different picture. Year-to-date, bitcoin is up 45% and ether is up an even more impressive 49%.

We believe the price action is therefore nothing more than some corrective price action within a bigger picture bullish structure. Fundamentally speaking, we would attribute the June performance to a period of lull after the explosive start to 2024 on the back of the bitcoin ETF approvals and the bitcoin halving event. The market has fully digested this risk and is now waiting for the next big bullish catalyst.

As far as what that catalyst might be, we believe it could come from the ETH ETFs going live in July. This event will likely invite a fresh wave of demand for crypto assets as traditional market participants look to take on added exposure. We also believe crypto assets are well positioned to mount another big push to the topside after already seeing a very healthy correction in recent weeks.

Back in 2021, bitcoin pushed to a fresh record high, which was then followed up in the same year by a record high in the price of ether. In 2024, we’ve already seen bitcoin push to another fresh record high. And yet, ether has yet to make its own record high and sits about 30% off the record high, leaving plenty of room for an impressive run in the second half of 2024.